College graduates in non-college jobs: Theory and evidence
Abstract
In an era when the current administration seeks to make at least the first two years of college "universal", many recent college graduates fear that high-skilled labor markets are already saturated and that good jobs are relatively scarce. In particular, there is the notion that growing numbers of college graduates are competing with high school graduates for the same jobs. These issues have important implications for college-educated workers, as policy initiatives designed to increase college enrollment could exacerbate an already bleak situation for recent college graduates. This thesis examines the market for recent college graduates in investigating these issues. Chapter 1 begins with an analytical framework used to motivate a definition of "non-college" jobs based on standard economic concepts. Occupations are characterized by the premium employers are willing to pay college graduates. This framework is used to derive a testable relationship between skill-biased technological change and changes in the proportion of college graduates in "non-college" jobs; this prediction is strongly supported by the data. In particular, the proportion of college graduates in non-college jobs declined dramatically over the 1980s and early 1990s, contrary to results found in previous studies. Chapter 2 focuses the dynamics of the career-paths of workers who take "non-college" jobs, and how these dynamics have changed over time. This chapter documents trends in job stability and occupational mobility of college graduates in non-college jobs. The results indicate that college graduates in "non-college" jobs are more likely to leave their employers than those graduates in "college" jobs. Despite this high degree of job separation, male graduates in the 1990s are significantly more likely to end up in another "non-college" job than to find a "college" job. Finally, Chapter 3 explores whether this pattern of mobility is consistent with the notion that employment in non-college jobs stigmatizes college graduates. A theoretical model of job search is developed that highlights the tradeoff between working in a non-college job and receiving subsequent offers from college jobs. The empirical evidence is generally consistent with the analytical framework.
Recommended Citation
Michael Lowell Hansen,
"College graduates in non-college jobs: Theory and evidence"
(January 1, 2000).
Boston College Dissertations and Theses.
Paper AAI9954994.
http://escholarship.bc.edu/dissertations/AAI9954994
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